recession

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Social Security’s Effect On The Treasury: Why We Are “Effed”

I think to the uninitiated to the world of arcane government finance, the reason Social Security’s financial condition is so bad is still rather mysterious. To me, it’s easier to understand — as is our general public-financing predicament — if we stop looking at it in terms of Social Security per se, and rather as a function of the government (and thus Treasury disbursement) in general.

8Dec2010 | | 3 comments | Continued
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New housing crash trend and obvious severe risks in 15 key charts

The U.S. housing market is riddled with massive risks which will almost certainly lower prices.

4Dec2010 | | 3 comments | Continued
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QE2 Shows The Fed Has Failed; Has No Credibility

by Aaron Krowne ML-Implode.com founder How soon we forget. There has been a lot of good commentary on the Fed’s latest round in its programme of “quantitative easing” (or “QE”), announced Tuesday, for $600 billion in additional bond buying (or is it $900 billion?) But it all seems to have missed the most important point: […]

4Nov2010 | | 1 comment | Continued
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Pending Homes Sales Crash in a Record Fall to a Record Low as Tax Break Expires. The MSM Misses It.

So here’s the news for you now, a week late, but new to the marketplace of ideas. Pending-home sales now stand below the worst numbers we have seen since the housing crash started in 2006. The rubber bands and duct tape are breaking apart. Presume the fix of a fall is in.

9Jul2010 | | 6 comments | Continued
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The Scariest Financial Chart of the United States Bar None

INVENTORY / Units For Sale vs. Delinquent Mortgages — Arguably the key gauge of our economy, this chart shows high-distress among the owners of real estate with “X” = (delinquent units + for sale units). Look at the massive gap between “X” and “Z” – monthly unit sales, and tell me anybody can predict where prices are going. The gap frightens all sentient beings and makes a fool of any person who predicts future prices.

24Jun2010 | | 6 comments | Continued
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Mortgage Financing is Available, But is Now The Time to Buy?

The month of May is coming to a close. The kids are almost out of school, and the family rental agreement is set to expire in weeks. It has been a difficult task to save during the past two years, but the deposit money is in the bank. Surely, now is the right time to […]

1Jun2010 | | 1 comment | Continued
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One in Ten Mortgage Borrowers Will Lose Their Home To The Bank

New Observations is forecasting that a minimum of one in ten homes with a mortgage today will be lost to foreclosure in the next two years and that this loss represents a staggering five-million-unit addition to inventory-for-sale.

20May2010 | | 9 comments | Continued
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Best They Can Do

We have some experience with what to expect, and it squares with the common sense notion that the tax credit is pulling house purchase demand from the future. When the first homesucker’s credit expired last year, purchase demand collapsed. That tax credit program applied only to first time buyers. This one applies to everyone, not just first timers. The demand vacuum following the expiration of this program should be even more extreme, and last longer.

21Apr2010 | | 3 comments | Continued
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Thinking of Selling Your Home? The Weight of Evidence Says Get It Done Yesterday.

Key charts to help you understand if now is a good time to buy or sell a home.

16Apr2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
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Here’s What the Housing Inventory Picture Really Looks Like

This gauge of residential property sales, inventory for sale, and delinquent mortgages is the central location of the financial crisis.

5Apr2010 | | 11 comments | Continued
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