Archive for Lee Adler- The Wall Street Examiner

author photo

Lee Adler is the editor and publisher of the Wall Street Examiner, and the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition, a membership based newsletter for sophisticated traders and investors. He also runs the world renowned Stool Pigeons Wire message board at, where his alter ego, Dr. Stepan N. Stool the stock proctologist, informs, entertains, and annoys readers.

post thumbnail

The Real Deal on Jobs – The BLS Is Just Catching Up With Massive Undercounting in Seasonally Adjusted Estimates

If we had thrown out all the confusing numbers and just look at the actual data on the chart, it was clear that the trend was improving in August. But Wall Street wanted more QE, and the headline numbers through August were just coincidentally playing to what the Street wanted. I wrongly thought that the Fed knew better and wouldn’t act. I gave them too much credit.

6Oct2012 | | 0 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Report That Deficit Narrowed In July is Misleading

… this was, again, a calendar effect due to June’s last business day being Friday, June 29. Negating the calendar effects, the budget deficit for July would have been up, not down…

11Aug2012 | | 0 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Such a Deal

So they made a deal… in a week’s time the Treasury will need to hit the market and raise around $150 billion in new cash, with Primary Dealers and other market participants having virtually no advance notice of what type of paper will be sold when. The last time the market faced anything like that was when they were raising money for the TARP in late August and September of 2008, and we know what happened to the stock market then. Splat!

31Jul2011 | | 1 comment | Continued
post thumbnail

Fiscal Suicide, Part II: A Swirling Motion

Medicare cuts (or lack thereof), government-sourced personal income, emergency loans to the states, and more. Russ discusses how it is hard to see how we’ll get by without some of this being renewed — and none of it is factored into the deficit projections.

19Jul2011 | | 0 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Fiscal Suicide; The Point of No Return

The bottom line here is that the gravy train of no accountability, no consequences spending is over.

19Jul2011 | | 1 comment | Continued
post thumbnail

Federal Tax Receipts Show Economy Grinding To A Halt

The one month moving average of daily withholding tax collections is at about the same level as last year. May’s gains have dissipated. The 13 week moving average is sinking fast and should be hitting bottom now. It is at roughly the same level as last year. Normal seasonality has a flat period through Q3, with a drop into the low in September/October. If this graph drops below last year’s level from here, then the economy probably is in free fall. That would be very bad news in terms of the levels of debt the Treasury must float in the months ahead.

17Jun2011 | | 0 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Government Heads For Budget Collapse

The government is massively overshooting Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) borrowing estimates issued in May. As I pointed out in the Treasury update at at the time, the government’s and the TBAC’s economic assumptions have been way too optimistic.

8Jun2011 | | 0 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Best They Can Do

We have some experience with what to expect, and it squares with the common sense notion that the tax credit is pulling house purchase demand from the future. When the first homesucker’s credit expired last year, purchase demand collapsed. That tax credit program applied only to first time buyers. This one applies to everyone, not just first timers. The demand vacuum following the expiration of this program should be even more extreme, and last longer.

21Apr2010 | | 3 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Weak In Review

Now that I’ve recovered from turkey overload, it’s time to digest last week’s economic data turkeys. Case Shiller was out with more late data last week. I say late because the data includes sales only through September. Call it the curve behind the curve. Not only is it late, the index is an average of […]

30Nov2009 | | 0 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Wall Street Claims Ignorance

The government propaganda minions in the financial media have done it again this week, claiming that the flattening trend of new unemployment claims is a sign that the economy is improving. Are they too stupid or too clever to report the real reason that claims are coming down? That is that if millions fewer people […]

19Nov2009 | | 4 comments | Continued