mortgage market

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Pending Home Sales Reconfirm the Market is Crashing

Three months of readings after the end of free down-payments, the inventory of purchase contracts rose just 5.25%. The inventory is still is at a record low with the exception of the two previous months – each of which were record lows in themselves.

3Sep2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
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Inventory Explodes Past the Worst of the Housing Crash

Soft demand for existing homes pushed up inventory to a record 12.5 months of sales and easily broke the previous high of 11.3 months scored in April 2008. By this basic measure, the price of homes may reasonably be expected to fall at the most torrential pace seen during our four-year-old crash.

25Aug2010 | | 1 comment | Continued
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The Aftermath of the Global Housing Bubble Chokes the World Banking System. Only a Coordinated Loan Massacre Could Defeat a Japanese-Style Dead-and-Dying-of-Debt Kamikaze. Hell Approaches Us All, But Only For An Extended Period.

Sometimes the complexity of the world is a ruse, and seeing the overwhelming future of our fortunes is strangely simple. Our past and future credit crisis is but one case in point.

28Jul2010 | | 0 comments | Continued
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Pending Homes Sales Crash in a Record Fall to a Record Low as Tax Break Expires. The MSM Misses It.

So here’s the news for you now, a week late, but new to the marketplace of ideas. Pending-home sales now stand below the worst numbers we have seen since the housing crash started in 2006. The rubber bands and duct tape are breaking apart. Presume the fix of a fall is in.

9Jul2010 | | 6 comments | Continued
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Accelerating Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Will Bash High-End Property Values: Part 2 of 6 — Current Market Conditions: It’s Wild and Weird On the Top

To summarize, serious jumbo mortgage delinquencies are 50 percent higher than the overall market. The number of distressed sales in that category has tripled in the last year in the Chicago area; and that trend toward distress is probably true far and wide. It has to be given what we know of the mortgage-delinquency trend. Thirty percent of all foreclosures are top-tier properties and that is a doubling of the rate when compared to three years ago. Our current zeitgeist is a trade-down environment with low-ball appraisals. Government subsidies do not cover most mortgages in expensive-property markets. And values are projected to fall 60 percent for expensive properties from peak to broken-bubble bottom.

19Jun2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
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Accelerating Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Will Bash High-End Property Values: Part 1 of 6 – Anecdotes on Inventory

The National Association of Realtors reported a high-end supply of 40 months — or more than SIX TIMES higher than it should be. Charlotte is selling out ten times slower than in better times. Kenilworth Illinois is “extremely oversupplied”. And in Lake Forest power houses are selling, but it takes 20 years to get rid of the thing.

14Jun2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
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Mortgage Financing is Available, But is Now The Time to Buy?

The month of May is coming to a close. The kids are almost out of school, and the family rental agreement is set to expire in weeks. It has been a difficult task to save during the past two years, but the deposit money is in the bank. Surely, now is the right time to […]

1Jun2010 | | 1 comment | Continued
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One in Ten Mortgage Borrowers Will Lose Their Home To The Bank

New Observations is forecasting that a minimum of one in ten homes with a mortgage today will be lost to foreclosure in the next two years and that this loss represents a staggering five-million-unit addition to inventory-for-sale.

20May2010 | | 9 comments | Continued
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Housing Prices Are Falling Again. We Have a Moral Obligation to Embrace The Trend.

Since I began in August to forecast a continuation of falling values, frequently I met with anger, disbelief, myopia. This week I wanted to take a closer look. So I pulled out one of the best number sets, and applied my crude math in exactly the same way I always do, but I did a close up on five years of data before and after the peak. The result is the chart you see below.

9May2010 | | 7 comments | Continued
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Best They Can Do

We have some experience with what to expect, and it squares with the common sense notion that the tax credit is pulling house purchase demand from the future. When the first homesucker’s credit expired last year, purchase demand collapsed. That tax credit program applied only to first time buyers. This one applies to everyone, not just first timers. The demand vacuum following the expiration of this program should be even more extreme, and last longer.

21Apr2010 | | 3 comments | Continued
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