housing bear market

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The Five Stages of America’s Housing Bubble

The method to extricate ourselves from housing madness.

20Aug2010 | | 0 comments | Continued
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The Aftermath of the Global Housing Bubble Chokes the World Banking System. Only a Coordinated Loan Massacre Could Defeat a Japanese-Style Dead-and-Dying-of-Debt Kamikaze. Hell Approaches Us All, But Only For An Extended Period.

Sometimes the complexity of the world is a ruse, and seeing the overwhelming future of our fortunes is strangely simple. Our past and future credit crisis is but one case in point.

28Jul2010 | | 0 comments | Continued
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Pending Homes Sales Crash in a Record Fall to a Record Low as Tax Break Expires. The MSM Misses It.

So here’s the news for you now, a week late, but new to the marketplace of ideas. Pending-home sales now stand below the worst numbers we have seen since the housing crash started in 2006. The rubber bands and duct tape are breaking apart. Presume the fix of a fall is in.

9Jul2010 | | 6 comments | Continued
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The Scariest Financial Chart of the United States Bar None

INVENTORY / Units For Sale vs. Delinquent Mortgages — Arguably the key gauge of our economy, this chart shows high-distress among the owners of real estate with “X” = (delinquent units + for sale units). Look at the massive gap between “X” and “Z” – monthly unit sales, and tell me anybody can predict where prices are going. The gap frightens all sentient beings and makes a fool of any person who predicts future prices.

24Jun2010 | | 6 comments | Continued
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Accelerating Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Will Bash High-End Property Values: Part 2 of 6 — Current Market Conditions: It’s Wild and Weird On the Top

To summarize, serious jumbo mortgage delinquencies are 50 percent higher than the overall market. The number of distressed sales in that category has tripled in the last year in the Chicago area; and that trend toward distress is probably true far and wide. It has to be given what we know of the mortgage-delinquency trend. Thirty percent of all foreclosures are top-tier properties and that is a doubling of the rate when compared to three years ago. Our current zeitgeist is a trade-down environment with low-ball appraisals. Government subsidies do not cover most mortgages in expensive-property markets. And values are projected to fall 60 percent for expensive properties from peak to broken-bubble bottom.

19Jun2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
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Mortgage Financing is Available, But is Now The Time to Buy?

The month of May is coming to a close. The kids are almost out of school, and the family rental agreement is set to expire in weeks. It has been a difficult task to save during the past two years, but the deposit money is in the bank. Surely, now is the right time to […]

1Jun2010 | | 1 comment | Continued
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Realtors Forecast End of Falling Prices While Inventory For-Sale Approaches Peak Crash Levels

New Observations estimates excess inventory for sale equals 1.4 million units with over 4-million homes on-the-block, a figure hovering just 11 percent below peak-crash inventory, while at the very same time the realtors’ chief economist forecast Monday that “the housing price correction appears essentially over.” A respectable 521,000 units sold in April, yet inventory for […]

25May2010 | | 0 comments | Continued
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One in Ten Mortgage Borrowers Will Lose Their Home To The Bank

New Observations is forecasting that a minimum of one in ten homes with a mortgage today will be lost to foreclosure in the next two years and that this loss represents a staggering five-million-unit addition to inventory-for-sale.

20May2010 | | 9 comments | Continued
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Housing Prices Are Falling Again. We Have a Moral Obligation to Embrace The Trend.

Since I began in August to forecast a continuation of falling values, frequently I met with anger, disbelief, myopia. This week I wanted to take a closer look. So I pulled out one of the best number sets, and applied my crude math in exactly the same way I always do, but I did a close up on five years of data before and after the peak. The result is the chart you see below.

9May2010 | | 7 comments | Continued
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Bring Criminal Charges Against Chief Executives of Leading Originators And Securitizers of Stated-Income Mortgages

The most notorious method for stealing burning squandering money in our real-estate-and-mortgage bubble was something called stated-income loans. The popular term now is liar loans. What does that mean?

23Apr2010 | | 9 comments | Continued