housing bear market

post thumbnail

Best They Can Do

We have some experience with what to expect, and it squares with the common sense notion that the tax credit is pulling house purchase demand from the future. When the first homesucker’s credit expired last year, purchase demand collapsed. That tax credit program applied only to first time buyers. This one applies to everyone, not just first timers. The demand vacuum following the expiration of this program should be even more extreme, and last longer.

21Apr2010 | | 3 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Thinking of Selling Your Home? The Weight of Evidence Says Get It Done Yesterday.

Key charts to help you understand if now is a good time to buy or sell a home.

16Apr2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

New Observations Quarterly Forecast of Property Values Estimates a Loss This Year of 13 Percent

The New Observations quarterly forecast of property values estimates a loss in values this year of 13 percent – a slight uptick from the 12% loss forecast at the beginning of the year.

8Apr2010 | | 0 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Here’s What the Housing Inventory Picture Really Looks Like

This gauge of residential property sales, inventory for sale, and delinquent mortgages is the central location of the financial crisis.

5Apr2010 | | 11 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

New Update of 120-Year Residential Property Series Suggests 22 Percent Nationwide Fall Ahead

The best long-run data series on property values estimates a fall of 22 percent from current values.

5Apr2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

States Cracking Down on Mortgage “Net Branches”

A director of compliance at a big time Dallas, TX mortgage bank told me recently a trend is developing that signals the end of the term “net branch” is near. States don’t want anything resembling a net branch or associated with “net branching” operating within their borders. Branch applications in many states, coming from HUD compliant mortgage bankers, that were previously approved 99.9% of the time, are being denied because the mortgage bank itself is associated slightly with term “net branching”.

22Mar2010 | | 2 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

Effect of Fed’s MBS Exit On Mortgage Rates Unknown

In a doomsday scenario, and it is possible, demand for MBS will be so low and prices will plummet so far, 30 year fixed mortgage rates will be driven up into the mid 6’s in a matter of days. If that happens, the Fed will likely begin buying mortgage-backed securities again and over a period of time drive rates back down.

25Feb2010 | | 1 comment | Continued
post thumbnail

Default As A Patriotic Duty

The President of the Financial Crisis Stimulates Systemic Long-Term Unemployment. Consumer Advocates Attack Creation Of Affordable Housing. *** I read a mysterious statement the other day. “My data show that between 1890 and 1990 real home prices actually didn’t increase,” said Robert Shiller, in Newsweek (Dec 30, 2009), Why We’ll Always Have More Money Than […]

11Jan2010 | | 11 comments | Continued
post thumbnail

The Numbers Still Say 30% Down 30% To Go

It’s very nice that values achieved a gain of .013% in October, but we still have a 30% fall ahead of us and, as you know, we have a 30% fall behind us. Better send in your mortgage payment.

30Dec2009 | | 1 comment | Continued
post thumbnail

Four More Years To Fall

The exhaustive Freddie Mac price index predicts prices will continue to fall for the next four years as the index fell 2% nationwide in the 3rd quarter.

9Dec2009 | | 2 comments | Continued