Comments on: Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall From Today’s Values http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/ Irreverant yet strangely satisfying commentary on housing and economic change Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:32:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: neopets stock market help http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-1416 neopets stock market help Mon, 13 Dec 2010 19:05:25 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-1416 Even the amateur can come across the internet internet site of the specific corporation in which he is interested and can collect the needed info. The stock broker can guide the newbie inside the present situation of stock exchange and might give some predictions and tips about next few days of trading trends. As the stock exchange is not steady, the new investor ought to watch some swings and roundabouts and try and study them making use of the study methods they have picked up thus far. Even the amateur can come across the internet internet site of the specific corporation in which he is interested and can collect the needed info. The stock broker can guide the newbie inside the present situation of stock exchange and might give some predictions and tips about next few days of trading trends. As the stock exchange is not steady, the new investor ought to watch some swings and roundabouts and try and study them making use of the study methods they have picked up thus far.

]]> By: yokel http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-110 yokel Mon, 07 Dec 2009 02:07:25 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-110 Hilarious. Not only will the bubble return, it will do so alot sooner than anyone thinks. Whether a house is worth the price you pay or not is irrevelant. It only matters if you can afford it. Hilarious. Not only will the bubble return, it will do so alot sooner than anyone thinks. Whether a house is worth the price you pay or not is irrevelant. It only matters if you can afford it.

]]> By: jc http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-97 jc Sat, 05 Dec 2009 06:08:24 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-97 So many of you are still in denial! You just cant handle the fact that you paid to much for your homes and values are and will continue to drop ! It's time to take off them rose tinted glasses !It's far from over and prices could easily fall another 45% despite inflation ! Grow up and stop complaining and never accept the advice of CNBC or JIM CRAMER ! So many of you are still in denial! You just cant handle the fact that you paid to much for your homes and values are and will continue to drop ! It’s time to take off them rose tinted glasses !It’s far from over and prices could easily fall another 45% despite inflation ! Grow up and stop complaining and never accept the advice of CNBC or JIM CRAMER !

]]> By: Hugh http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-95 Hugh Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:18:02 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-95 smvcpa09's comments are spot-on perfect. It is rare to see such insight on the web or anywhere for that matter. Thanks for the great post... smvcpa09′s comments are spot-on perfect. It is rare to see such insight on the web or anywhere for that matter. Thanks for the great post…

]]> By: Hugh Lawson http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-94 Hugh Lawson Fri, 04 Dec 2009 00:44:58 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-94 The Case-Schiller line has a positive slope because of inflation, so it is not inflation-adjusted. Since the curve compares the price of the same house over a long period of time, an inflation adjusted version would be flat until it reaches the current bubble. There is no reason for the same 1200 sq. ft. house to increase in value over time except from inflation. The bubble price increase is temporary and the long-term trend will re-establish itself once the bubble dies. So far the bubble looks sick but not dead...yet. The Case-Schiller line has a positive slope because of inflation, so it is not inflation-adjusted. Since the curve compares the price of the same house over a long period of time, an inflation adjusted version would be flat until it reaches the current bubble. There is no reason for the same 1200 sq. ft. house to increase in value over time except from inflation. The bubble price increase is temporary and the long-term trend will re-establish itself once the bubble dies. So far the bubble looks sick but not dead…yet.

]]> By: MichaelWhite http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-93 MichaelWhite Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:18:23 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-93 to P: I am working on this. thanks for the note. mdw to P: I am working on this. thanks for the note. mdw

]]> By: P http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-92 P Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:26:45 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-92 Assuming that house prices keep trend with inflation, then an exponential trend is expected, unless the data is inflation adjusted. This trendline is linear and relatively flat, thus I assume it is inflation adjusted. The question is, is the Case-Shiller data also inflation adjusted? The main point is, both data sets have to be either inflation adjusted or not. It would be great if someone could find that out... Assuming that house prices keep trend with inflation, then an exponential trend is expected, unless the data is inflation adjusted. This trendline is linear and relatively flat, thus I assume it is inflation adjusted. The question is, is the Case-Shiller data also inflation adjusted?

The main point is, both data sets have to be either inflation adjusted or not.

It would be great if someone could find that out…

]]> By: MichaelWhite http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-91 MichaelWhite Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:07:50 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-91 to: Anonymous 1. flat line: I keep track of both the 120-year trend and the 10-year-prior-to-the-bubble trend. Both trends are close enough to each other to make it likely the short-trend line is useful. 2. peak-to-peak: This method of devising a trend might make sense outside of a bubble, but the data was chosen to keep bubble values out. if that isn't reasonable, then i don't understand reason. 3. i am double checking on whether or not these are real figures adjusted for inflation. thanks for the note mdw to: Anonymous

1. flat line: I keep track of both the 120-year trend and the 10-year-prior-to-the-bubble trend. Both trends are close enough to each other to make it likely the short-trend line is useful.
2. peak-to-peak: This method of devising a trend might make sense outside of a bubble, but the data was chosen to keep bubble values out. if that isn’t reasonable, then i don’t understand reason.
3. i am double checking on whether or not these are real figures adjusted for inflation.

thanks for the note mdw

]]> By: Anonymous http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-89 Anonymous Wed, 02 Dec 2009 04:18:06 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-89 Wow. I agree that this post deserves an F. So many problems, where to start? 1. Flat line trend on a non-logarithmic y-axis. Ever heard of exponential growth? Yes, they have that in financial markets, too, not just biology! 2. The trend is based on a flat part of the cycle. If I connect the dots from 1990-1994, am I going to get a negatively sloped line? The C-S should bottom at 40! The point is that you need to consider the time period over which the trend is drawn. The 1987-1997 period does not include a full cycle. It's better to connect peak to peak or trough to trough. 3. Inflation has been greater than this trend line. Don't you think home prices will go up at least that much for a long-term trend? Please do not listen to this advice. Sheesh. Wow. I agree that this post deserves an F.

So many problems, where to start?

1. Flat line trend on a non-logarithmic y-axis. Ever heard of exponential growth? Yes, they have that in financial markets, too, not just biology!

2. The trend is based on a flat part of the cycle. If I connect the dots from 1990-1994, am I going to get a negatively sloped line? The C-S should bottom at 40! The point is that you need to consider the time period over which the trend is drawn. The 1987-1997 period does not include a full cycle. It’s better to connect peak to peak or trough to trough.

3. Inflation has been greater than this trend line. Don’t you think home prices will go up at least that much for a long-term trend?

Please do not listen to this advice. Sheesh.

]]> By: December 2nd Daily Briefing « The LYON Uncaged http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values/comment-page-1/#comment-87 December 2nd Daily Briefing « The LYON Uncaged Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:52:41 +0000 http://blog.ml-implode.com/?p=45#comment-87 [...] http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover-rentals29-2009nov29,0,350802.story http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values [...] [...] http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover-rentals29-2009nov29,0,350802.story http://blog.ml-implode.com/2009/11/case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values [...]

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